How Many New Voters Did Bernie Get To Register

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) speaks at a 2016 campaign rally outside the New Hampshire State House, after filing the paperwork his candidacy on November 5, 2015. — Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks at a 2016 entrada rally outside the New Hampshire Statehouse, after filing the paperwork for his candidacy on November 5, 2015.

The New Hampshire principal will make or break Bernie Sanders'due south chances

What the latest polls mean for Bernie in New Hampshire.

By Updated Jul 16, 2019, three:43pm EDT

DURHAM, NH — Bernie Sanders needs to win in New Hampshire to get the Democratic nomination — simply his victory there is far from assured.

A recent poll from Saint Anselm Higher, which surveyed 351 registered voters from July 10 to 12, showed Sanders slipping into fifth identify, with Harris surging to second backside Biden afterward the outset Democratic debate.

Only some other New Hampshire poll, conducted by CNN and released inside 24 hours of the Saint Anselm one, suggested Sanders is however riding comfortably in second place behind old Vice President Joe Biden. CNN's poll showed Sanders tied for second place with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is enjoying a steady climb in the Granite Land.

NEW: @CNN Poll of the Democratic Master in New Hampshire.
Biden: 24%
Sanders: 19%
Warren: nineteen%
Buttigieg: 10%
Harris: 9%
Booker: 2%
O'Rourke: 2%
No 1 else above 1% https://t.co/me0WCZA2rr
— Ryan Nobles (@ryanobles) July xvi, 2019

"I notice it very hard to see him winning the nomination if he doesn't succeed in New Hampshire," Marking Longabaugh, a former top Sanders strategist who helped mastermind the 2016 campaign in the state, told me in April.

The first-in-the-nation primary, which comes eight days after the Iowa caucuses, is crucial for Sanders. Equally the CNN poll indicates, New Hampshire and so far mirrors the national competition — Biden leading anybody, followed by Sanders, Warren, and fellow Sen. Kamala Harris. South Curve, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is also in the mix. But Sanders' campaign is casting doubt on the Saint Anselm poll suggesting a skid.

"I saw that poll. Yous know what that poll has me among young people? 3.4 percent," Sanders told the Washington Post's Robert Costa during a Tuesday interview. "That poll is a bad poll."

Carli Stevenson, Sanders' deputy land director in New Hampshire, dismissed the Saint Anselm poll every bit having "very small sample size and a very large margin of fault."

"We are focused on doing what we need to do to win and not focusing on polls that have some serious flaws in their methodology," Stevenson told Voice. "Nosotros're focused on organizing, knocking on doors, talking to voters. Simply this weekend, nosotros knocked on 2,300 doors."

Sanders' chief suspicion with the Saint Anselm poll was that it showed him doing poorly among young people, a grouping that helped propel him forward in 2016. But if youth enthusiasm for Sanders seriously flags in New Hampshire and nationwide, he could be in problem.

Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders shake hands before participating in the MSNBC Democratic Candidates Debate at the University of New Hampshire, on February 4, 2016. Sanders would go on to win the state's primary. — Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders milk shake easily earlier participating in the MSNBC Autonomous candidates contend at the University of New Hampshire on February 4, 2016. Sanders would proceed to win the state's master.

In 2016, Sanders took the New Hampshire main by storm with a resounding 22-bespeak win. Four years later, the progressive icon starting his second presidential bid contesting Biden, Warren, and Harris for frontrunner status. He'due south a far cry from an underdog, only the race is no longer a binary selection between Hillary Clinton and him. The "fringe" ideas he ran on in 2016 — Medicare for all, debt-free college, and a $15 minimum wage — have been embraced past a number of his competitors.

The Saint Anselm poll is a dramatic alter from an April Emerson College national poll that put Sanders ahead of Biden in the Granite Country. Simply it's still relatively early and New Hampshire voters are famously fickle and decumbent to making up their minds at the last minute. Poll afterwards poll shows the vast majority of voters are all the same shopping effectually for a candidate to back up.

Sanders has gear up massive expectations. The ultimate test for his campaign is if he tin deliver.

Sanders swept New Hampshire every bit an underdog. At present he'due south the frontrunner.

Sanders's worst enemy in 2020 could exist high expectations. If he gets besides comfortable and fails to win or come in a potent 2nd in New Hampshire, it could badly weaken his candidacy. And he's the only Democrat in a massive field with a past record to exist compared to.

Pocket-sized, overwhelming white, and politically contained New Hampshire leaned heavily into Sanders's populist fervor in 2016. His massive rallies tapped into a raw energy full of resentment and distrust with the moneyed political institution. Sanders, similar Republican primary winner Donald Trump, appealed to New Hampshire voters who wanted to blow up the system and start over.

Sanders didn't merely win New Hampshire in 2016; he captured more 152,000 votes, setting a new record in the state for the virtually votes received by whatever candidate, Republican or Democrat.

"To get 150,000 votes in the New Hampshire main is unbelievable," said Tad Devine, Sanders's main strategist during his 2016 campaign. "That's really what launched him on the process that made him go all the manner to California."

People stand in the snow eager to hear Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) speak during a rally in Exeter, New Hampshire, on February 5, 2016. — People stand in the snow eager to hear Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speak during a rally in Exeter, New Hampshire, on Feb 5, 2016.

"He's cursed with the perception of the frontrunner," said Tom Rath, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire who advised Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign. "It sets certain expectations, both in New Hampshire and beyond, as to how he's going to perform, and y'all cannot accept New Hampshire for granted."

Bernieworld seems bullish on Sanders'due south 2020 odds, believing he needs to stumble badly in order to lose New Hampshire. They're already working to build a large grassroots operation driven past in-state volunteers and have a notable advantage in the infrastructure from Sanders's previous campaign.

"It's important to be here, it's important to build a volunteer network, information technology's important to talk to voters," said Joe Caiazzo, the New Hampshire state managing director for the Sanders entrada told me this spring. "We're taking nothing for granted. Nosotros're going to fight for every vote; we're going to work hard every twenty-four hours."

How things could go wrong for Sanders

New Hampshire's college students and young voters helped put Sanders over the summit in 2016, only he may non be able to rely on that support through 2020.

With more xx candidates to choose from, voters are still shopping effectually. On a recent April morning, the lampposts outside the Academy of New Hampshire's student library had no Bernie stickers — just 1 for "Pete 2020." The immature mayor of South Bend was in third but has slipped to fourth place in New Hampshire, according to the Saint Anselm poll. Buttigieg also tied Sanders for second place in an April Suffolk University/Boston Earth poll of the land, both trailing behind Biden.

Sanders is "last yr's news a little bit. Democratic voters in detail like the new, fresh face," said University of New Hampshire pollster and political science professor Andy Smith. "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line, and Bernie was terminal year'southward beloved, so to speak."

If Sanders really is flagging among immature people, it could spell doom. Students at the Academy of New Hampshire, Keene Country College, and Dartmouth College told me in April they are somewhat overwhelmed by their choices this cycle, and they aren't set to pin their hopes on Sanders again.

"Information technology's non totally devoid of enthusiasm for him, but I'm pretty sure he's non the number ane option of our activists," said Michael Parsons, a student at Dartmouth College and executive director of Dartmouth College Democrats. Across students who belong to the Autonomous Socialists of America and are sold on Sanders, many other immature Democrats on campus are keeping their options open up, Parsons said.

Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) shakes hands with audience members after speaking at a campaign rally at the University of New Hampshire on February 8, 2016 in Durham, New Hampshire. — Autonomous presidential hopeful Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) shakes hands with audience members after speaking at a entrada rally at the University of New Hampshire on February eight, 2016, in Durham, New Hampshire.

There's another problem that could eat into candidates' support from young voters: a new state police passed by Republicans in 2018 that effectively prevents out-of-state college students from voting in New Hampshire elections.

The law requires prospective voters to declare New Hampshire every bit their state of residency threescore days earlier they vote. That ways they would exist subject to other requirements, like getting a New Hampshire driver's license and automobile registration before voting. Before the law was enacted, students had to testify they lived in the state by bringing their licenses and other proof of residency, similar mail or records showing their on-campus address. Students and voting activists alike object to the new rules in the land, characterizing it as a "poll taxation" that makes voting financially untenable for students who tin can't afford the fees for a new license and registration.

The result got some national attention afterwards Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) asked 2020 candidates to take a stand on the law. Sanders called it "cowardly" during a CNN town hall in Manchester. The state'south newly Democratic-controlled legislature is trying to pass bills to reverse the changes, but those efforts are unlikely to get support from Republican Gov. Chris Sununu.

Higher students and young voters ultimately may non matter too much in the primary — they are a smaller and less reliable bloc compared to older voters. Go out polls show Sanders likewise did well with middle-aged voters in 2016, but potential bug in 2020 may lie more than in the unlike makeup of the field. Sanders shouldn't assume that New Hampshire votes are yet sold. He also hasn't traveled to the state about as much as Warren in 2020; since his initial launch in that location, he'south returned just once for a CNN boondocks hall.

"I would be very cautious about saying he'southward a shoo-in or they should feel a level of confidence they will do likewise as they would terminal time," said Smith.

New Hampshire is also make-or-suspension for Elizabeth Warren

Warren as well enjoys wide support among the party's progressive wing and holds similar views to Sanders on taxing ultra-millionaires and billionaires to generate money for sweeping social programs. And New Hampshire voters are appearing to pay attention; Warren is a shut third behind Kamala Harris in the Saint Anselm poll and was third backside Sanders in a June CBS/YouGov poll of New Hampshire voters.

Warren has visited the country often since she launched her campaign, has hired a number of experienced New Hampshire political operatives, and is plotting an aggressive grassroots strategy in the state. With the tagline "Warren has a program for that," the Massachusetts senator has as well carved out a niche for herself as the policy auto of 2020, releasing sweeping and detailed progressive proposals — one after the other.

Warren rolled out a plan to wipe away the vast bulk of America'south student debt and create debt-complimentary college for public universities right earlier an Apr CNN boondocks hall in Manchester where higher students filled the audience. Her plan would abolish upwards to $50,000 in student loan debt for an estimated 42 meg Americans. It comes with a hefty toll tag — $1.25 trillion over 10 years — that she plans to pay for with the ultra-millionaire tax she introduced in January.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), speaks during a New Hampshire campaign event during her 2020 exploratory phase in Manchester, the state's largest city, on January 12, 2019. — Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks during a New Hampshire campaign event during her 2020 exploratory phase in Manchester, the state's largest city, on January 12, 2019.

Warren's slow but steady rise once more mirrors the national picture. Initial fears about her electability against Trump are still part of the national conversation just may exist fading more in the minds of voters. An April Suffolk poll of New Hampshire voters showed voters were nevertheless worried she couldn't beat President Trump in a general election.

"She is well-known, and yet she doesn't seem to have the liftoff that she ought to given how comfy she is here," Rath observed.

But Warren has also proved the enthusiasm for her policy-focused entrada isn't just a wink in the pan. And if Sanders stumbles for whatever reason, Warren could exist in a prime number position to snag voters who bandage ballots for him in 2016.

"I call back it'southward more prudent at this point to keep an open up mind well-nigh Warren," Scala said. "She certainly stands to be adjacent in line for a expert portion of the Sanders vote if Sanders ultimately fades."